The Social Security Administration’s (SSA) highly anticipated 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) announcement has been delayed due to the ongoing 2025 government shutdown. The update, which determines how much monthly benefits will increase next year, was originally scheduled for release in mid-October.
With the shutdown now entering its fourth week, millions of Americans who depend on Social Security are anxiously awaiting word on how their payments will change in 2026.
Why the COLA Announcement Was Delayed
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was expected to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September 2025 on October 15, a critical data point used by the SSA to calculate the annual COLA. That report was postponed because of the shutdown, which has stalled most federal data releases.
The BLS confirmed on its website that it will now release the September 2025 CPI at 7:30 a.m. Central Time this Friday, allowing the SSA to meet its statutory deadlines.
The CPI measures inflation across key consumer categories such as housing, energy, and food prices — all of which factor into the cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients.
“No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services,” the BLS said. “This release allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits.”
What Happens Next for the 2026 COLA
The Social Security Administration has confirmed that it will use the CPI data released this Friday to calculate and announce the 2026 COLA the same day.
In an email statement, the SSA said:
“Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits for 75 million Americans will be adjusted per the 2026 COLA, beginning January 1, 2026, without any delay due to the current government lapse in appropriation.”
That means beneficiaries can still expect to receive updated benefit notices later this year — despite the disruption in government operations. The COLA is designed to help retirees and other beneficiaries keep pace with inflation by increasing monthly payments in proportion to rising consumer costs.
How Inflation Affects Social Security Payments
The COLA is based on changes in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) from the third quarter (July through September) of the current year compared to the same period the previous year.
For 2025, the SSA announced a 2.5% COLA, reflecting moderate inflation. Beneficiaries began receiving those adjusted payments in January 2025, with notices issued in December 2024.
This year’s delay does not affect payment delivery. The SSA confirmed that all existing Social Security benefits — including retirement, disability, survivors, and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) — continue without interruption during the shutdown. Over 72.5 million Americans currently receive Social Security payments.
What Current Inflation Data Shows
Although September’s inflation numbers have yet to be released, data from August 2025 provides insight into current trends. The CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 2.9% year-over-year, according to the BLS.
Breaking that down:
- Prices for all items excluding food and energy rose 3.1%.
- Food prices increased 3.2%.
- Energy prices climbed only 0.2% since August 2024.
The steady rise in core inflation (excluding volatile food and energy categories) suggests that cost pressures remain persistent, even as overall inflation rates have cooled from earlier highs in 2022 and 2023.
What Experts Expect the 2026 COLA to Be
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan advocacy group for older Americans, estimates that the 2026 COLA will be around 2.7%, based on projections made before the shutdown. The group’s estimate assumes continued moderate inflation consistent with summer 2025 levels.
While the final figure could vary slightly once September data is factored in, a 2.7% increase would translate to an average monthly boost of roughly $50 to $55 for the typical retired worker receiving Social Security benefits.
TSCL warns, however, that even modest inflation can outpace COLA increases for retirees with high medical and housing costs. “While inflation has eased, essential living expenses for older Americans — particularly healthcare and utilities — remain stubbornly high,” the group noted in a recent statement.
When Beneficiaries Will See the Increase
Once the SSA releases the official COLA announcement later this week, the new rate will take effect on January 1, 2026. Beneficiaries will typically receive notification letters in December 2025 detailing their updated monthly benefit amount.
The COLA affects not only Social Security beneficiaries but also those receiving Supplemental Security Income (SSI). Adjustments to SSI payments typically occur at the same time as Social Security increases.
Even with the delay, the SSA has reassured the public that payment schedules will remain on time, and that COLA calculations will not be disrupted by the shutdown once inflation data is received.
The Bottom Line
The 2026 Social Security COLA announcement has been temporarily delayed, but beneficiaries should not be alarmed. Once the September inflation data is published this Friday, the SSA will move swiftly to finalize and release the new COLA.
For the roughly 75 million Americans relying on Social Security and SSI benefits, the upcoming adjustment — likely around 2.7% — will help offset modest inflation as the cost of living continues to rise.
Despite the government shutdown’s broad impact on federal operations, Social Security payments remain secure, and the agency remains on track to implement the 2026 cost-of-living increase without delay.
