Total health care spending growth is expected to average 5.8 percent annually over 2015-2025, according to a report published today as a ‘Web First’ by Health Affairs and authored by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ (CMS) Office of the Actuary (OACT). Projected national health spending growth remains lower than the average over previous two decades before 2008 (nearly 8 percent).
• Medicaid spending growth is slowing significantly in 2016, to 5.3 percent, which the report attributes to slower enrollment growth and stronger utilization management. Spending growth is expected to average 5.6 percent for 2017-19, lower than in 2014-15.
• In 2015, Medicare expenditures are expected to have been $647.3 billion, a 4.6-percent increase from 2014, driven partly by increased enrollment. However, per-enrollee costs are estimated to have increased by only 2.4 percent, the same as the previous year, continuing the recent trend of low per-enrollee cost increases.
• Prescription drug spending is projected to grow an average of 6.7 percent per year for 2016 through 2025. This follows growth of 12.2 percent in 2014 and 8.1 percent in 2015 when spending growth was influenced by the introduction of expensive new specialty drugs such as those used to treat Hepatitis C.
The OACT report will appear at: http://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/NationalHealthAccountsProjected.html
An article about the study also being published by Health Affairs here: http://content.healthaffairs.org/lookup/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2016.0459.